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my hopes for reading these books: it being written for middle schoolers doesn’t make it impossible for me to read nico is not reduced to the Grump Emo Boy to contrast wills Happy Sunshine Boy his character is actually developed to exist outside of the context of any of the men its been established he has had a crush on it would be nice if they could get me to actually like will
Thinking about Newcomb’s problem. If the predictor is really *perfect* by stipulation, I think even causal decision theorists one box. Like, if we understand causality to be about counterfactuals (i.e., if I hadn’t done X, then Y wouldn’t have happened, therefore X caused Y, which I think is the only clean way of describing causality without getting extremely metaphysical), one boxing causes you to get more money. Say you pick two boxes and get the lower total reward, as necessarily happens by stipulation. If you had, counterfactually, picked one box, the one-box world necessarily would have had a higher reward. So picking two boxes *caused* you to get a lower reward, so you should have one boxed. The normal way of considering the counterfactual is: you one box as the predictor expected you to, leaving money on the table. But counterfactually, if you had two boxed, then you would have gotten more money. The problem is, by stipulation of a perfect predictor, that is an incoherent world! It’s not a valid counterfactual to consider! Now, if the predictor is even slightly imperfect and the two-box-for-max-profit world isn’t logically or metaphysically incoherent, this doesn’t work (I think?). So basically people just need to start saying almost-perfect predictor instead of perfect predictor for it to be an interesting hypothetical. Maybe they’re doing this already, who’s to say.
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